The following analysis of the 2023 World Cup is used with permission of the author, Simon Poidevin.

Pool C: Fiji v Portugal – 6am Monday,October 9 (AEDT)

Eddie Jones and the Wallabies have spent this week preparing for the remote possibility of making the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals after a disastrous campaign. Their chances hinge not on their own performance, but a mathematical miracle in Portugal’s upcoming game against Fiji.

If Portugal pull off an improbable eight-point win over Fiji in Toulouse in the final group stage game, then Australia will advance. But if Fiji win, they will send the Wallabies home.

A Portugal win by less than seven will also knock out Australia because Fiji will earn a bonus point and finish equal with Australia on 11 points. But Fiji will own the tie-breaker because they beat Australia earlier in the World Cup.

Despite the long shot, the Australian squad has trained with purpose at their base in Saint-Etienne. But their destiny hangs in the balance, relying on the near-total capitulation of the Fijian side.

While the Wallabies did beat both Georgia and Portugal, they lost to both Fiji and Wales in their group matches, threatening their perfect record of reaching the sudden-death rounds in each of the nine previous World Cups played.

The Wallabies squad have suffered more hits, with Nick Frost and Carter Gordon ruled out for the remainder of the tournament with knee injuries.

Portugal are a talented and passionate team, whose key strength is an agile backline that can move the ball very effectively to their elusive outside backs. Their set-piece is strong with athletic lineout jumpers and a strong scrum that troubled Australia throughout the pool clash last Sunday.

Fiji were surprisingly disjointed in their 5-point victory against Georgia and did not enjoy the relentless defensive pressure from the Georgians, who tackled hard with a magnificent accuracy of 91.5 per cent.

Portugal managed an impressive last minute 18-18 draw with Georgia, so Fiji will have to be at their best to win with a bonus point.

But Fiji are currently ranked eighth in the world and Portugal 16th. It is therefore hard to see such an upset over a Fijian team desperate to win for their country –but stranger things have happened in sport.

Pool D: Japan v Argentina – 10pm Sunday, October 8 (AEDT)

This clash in Nantes will be a cracking one, with the winner progressing to the quarter-finals.

Argentina suffered a heavy loss to England in week one but have gained momentum and respect with every game since.

Japan’s Lomano Lemeki in action against Samoa. Japan are masters of the running game. AP

Japan also struggled against England, but last week made a real statement by beating Samoa 28-22 in Toulouse, with a glorious display of skill, technique and areal tenacity in defence.

If every team around the world played like Japan, rugby’s global footprint would expand enormously. They are the masters of the running game, which they have perfected so well to compensate for a lack of size.

Pool B: Ireland v Scotland – 6am Sunday,October 8 (AEDT)

This northern hemisphere showdown will be closely watched by conspiracy theorists in South Africa. The Springboks could be eliminated from the quarter-finals if Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points, and also allow the Irish to score four tries and hence gain a bonus point.

But that ain’t happening at the Stade de France. Ireland have not lost to Scotland since 2017, when they went down in a Six Nations game 27-22 at Murrayfield. The Irish are ranked No. 1 in the world and enjoying a 16-game winning streak.

There is no doubt Scotland are a very good team, and will give their all against Ireland. But the Irish have momentum and are arguably the best in form team coming into week four of the tournament.

Ireland defeated South Africa in their group match and are arguably the best team coming into week four of the World Cup. AP

Pool A: France v Italy – 6am Saturday, October 7 (AEDT)

Italy hold their own on the world rugby stage. They have won 25 games against tier-one nations since 1978, including beating Ireland at Lansdowne road in 1997.So the thumping by New Zealand 97-17 in Lyon last week shocked the rugby world.

It was Italy’s worst defeat, save only for the 101-0 whacking they received from the Springboks in 1999, during a summer tour to South Africa.

The question is whether the drubbing in Lyon from a brilliant and ruthless All Black team was actually a sign the Kiwis have returned to form, or just a capitulation from a weak Italian team. I would argue the former, with the All Blacks back on song.

France now have the chance to send their own signal in Lyon. French captain Antoine Dupont has recommenced training after surgery on a broken cheekbone, but hasn’t formerly returned to the French squad.