On June 24, 1995 at Ellis Park Stadium in Johannesburg, South Africa dramatically defeated New Zealand 15 to 12 in extra time of the third Rugby World Cup final, courtesy of a Joel Stransky drop-goal in the last seven minutes of the game.
I was privileged to be the only sideline TV commentator that historic day and as sport goes, few if any finals in any sport match the significance that victory had to a nation. Not long out of prison, the recently elected president Nelson Mandela had brought South Africans together to support the Springboks and their inspiring captain Francois Pienaar in their first Rugby World Cup campaign after apartheid-era sporting boycotts had been lifted.
The atmosphere at Ellis Park was electric. Giant 119 kg All Black winger Jonah Lomu had torn defences apart leading up to the final and was expected to do the same in Johannesburg. But the Springboks and especially scrum-half Joost van der Westhuizen had other ideas, and continually put their bodies on the line to shut the big man down.
After 100 minutes of play no tries had been scored, but I had witnessed the most significant Rugby World Cup final of all time. President Nelson Mandela, wearing a Springbok jersey and cap, presented the William Webb Ellis Cup to Pienaar and the crowd of 60,000, and tens of millions of viewers across South Africa and beyond, erupted with emotion.
The film Invictus, directed by Clint Eastwood and starring Morgan Freeman as Mandela and Matt Damon as Pienaar, is an accurate testament of how this victory united a racially divided country through the power of sport.
I tell this story because it is relevant to this, the 10th final, set to be played out in a cold, wet and windy Stade de France in Paris at 9pm on Saturday (Sunday 6am AEDT). Current Springbok captain Siya Kolisi is cut from the same leadership cloth as Pienaar. South Africa is divided and going through very hard times, and Kolisi has consistently referenced the daily struggles endured by millions back home as a major driver for his team.
Kolisi and his team will undoubtedly draw inspiration from the events of 1995 as the Springboks and All Blacks – who have both won the tournament three times – meet for the first time in a Rugby World Cup final since that dramatic day. It promises to be a titanic battle.
While this final is a triumph for Southern Hemisphere rugby, it will be a match between teams that play contrasting styles. New Zealand’s free-flowing game has resulted in 48 tries in their six matches to South Africa’s 27. South Africa rely heavily on their huge forward pack and as we discussed last week, have led the world in the way they have used the full 23 in the squad. That won’t change.
After the success of their bench “bomb squad” against England, especially the front row, Rassie Erasmus and his coaches have changed the mix for the final with a high-risk and ruthless selection strategy. Scrum-half Faf de Klerk and flyhalf Handre Pollard – both Cup winners from 2019 – will start. Fly-half Manie Libbok, who had started all the big matches so far, is not even in the squad.
The selection of seven forwards and just the one back – Willie Le Roux – suggests South Africa are expecting a forward battle in the wet. It’s a risky selection strategy – one that failed against Ireland – and requires creative contingency plans. Head coach Jacques Nienaber confirmed winger Cheslin Kolbe will move into scrum-half if de Klerk is injured.
Staying with the forwards, South Africa will be hugely relieved that Bongi Mbonambi, their only specialist hooker who also assumes captaincy duties when Kolisi is off, has been cleared to play after his alleged racial slur against England’s Tom Curry in the semi-final.
The set-piece battle will be fascinating. It’s hard to separate the front-rows and replacements in power and precision, however New Zealand will have the luxury of a fresh specialist hooker in the impressive Samisoni Taukei’aho. As good as Mbonambi is, if he can’t last the duration then the Springboks will have to turn to 37-year-old Deon Fourie, who plays both as a hooker and loose forward.
Lineouts were problematic for South Africa against England, forcing the replacement of Eben Etzebeth with RG Snyman. It worked well, but Snyman is best towards the front of the lineout, and this limits plays off deep ball straight to the halfback.
The All Black lineout is working incredibly efficiently – on their own throw they have lost just two line-outs in the entire tournament. Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett and Brodie Retallick are smart, world-class jumpers, complemented by the option of Ardie Savea or Dalton Papali’i jumping at two. Coach Ian Foster made only two changes to his 23, both in the forwards. Retallick will start, sending Whitelock back to the bench, while prop Nepo Laulala comes onto the bench in place of the less experienced Fletcher Newell.
When it comes to the backs, Foster and his coaches would have studied how the Springboks struggled in wet conditions against England. Owen Farrell was relentless and accurate in his tactical kicking, playing havoc with the Springbok back three and forcing the early replacement of fullback Damian Willemse with the experienced Le Roux. Willemse will start in the final.
Unlike England, who kicked away 93 per cent of their possession against the Springboks, the All Blacks will mix it up. They will back their ball-in-hand prowess to probe for holes in the Springbok defensive line while strategically using the high ball, grubber kicks and chip kicks to keep South Africa guessing. The Kiwis high ball defence is also better except for Mark Telea, who will definitely be targeted by Handre Pollard.
In a terrific decision from World Rugby, English barrister Wayne Barnes will referee the final. He manages a game better than any referee on the globe and is capable of making on-the-run decisions, often overruling a TMO intervention to keep the game moving. But even he will struggle in the wet conditions controlling two massive packs smashing each other to gain dominance.
South Africa will take heart from the 35-7 annihilation they inflicted on the All Blacks at Twickenham two months ago, and the belief they have built from the epic matches they have played to reach the final (the quarter-final and semi-final wins were each by a single point). They have the best discipline record of the competition, receiving just the one yellow card versus New Zealand’s four yellows and a red. And there’s the nation back home – they are playing for much more than another Rugby World Cup title.
But they must be very good for 80 minutes if they are to beat a ruthless All Black team who have learnt from their losses at Twickenham and in the opening game of the tournament against France. In the last five games they have been frighteningly good. Most of these All Blacks have played together for years. They also have deep belief, and with many set to finish their international careers after the final they will want to do it for each other and go out on top.
For mine, in the wet conditions the All Blacks are favourites as they have superior skills across their squad of 23 and regularly play in the wet at home. One thing is for sure – the Stade de France on Saturday night will be no place for the faint- hearted.
In one very good piece of news for Australia – congratulations to the Australian Steelers who won the International Wheelchair Rugby World Cup, beating Canada 53-48 in Paris last week in an exhilarating performance.
